TITLE

An Automated High-Resolution, Rapidly Relocatable Meteorological Nowcasting and Prediction System

AUTHOR(S)
Schroeder, Anthony J.; Stauffer, David R.; Seaman, Nelson L.; Deng, Aijun; Gibbs, Annette M.; Hunter, Glenn K.; Young, George S.
PUB. DATE
April 2006
SOURCE
Monthly Weather Review;Apr2006, Vol. 134 Issue 4, p1237
SOURCE TYPE
Academic Journal
DOC. TYPE
Article
ABSTRACT
An automated, rapidly relocatable nowcasting and prediction system, whose cornerstone is the full-physics, nested-grid, nonhydrostatic fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU–NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5), has been under development at the Pennsylvania State University since the late 1990s. In the applications presented in this paper, the Rapidly Relocatable Nowcast-Prediction System (RRNPS) provides a continuous stream of highly detailed nowcasts, defined here as gridded meteorological fields produced by a high-resolution mesoscale model assimilating available observations and staying just ahead of the clock to provide immediately available current meteorological conditions. The RRNPS, configured to use 36-, 12-, and 4-km nested domains, is applied over the Great Plains for 18 case days in August 2001, over the East Coast region for 8 case days in April 2002, and for 12 case days during the winter and summer of 2003. The performance of the RRNPS is evaluated using subjective and statistical methods for runs with and without the use of continuous four-dimensional data assimilation (FDDA). A statistical evaluation of the dependence of RRNPS skill on the length of model integration yields further insight into the value added by FDDA in RRNPS nowcasts. It must be emphasized that unlike typical operational analysis systems, none of the current data are used in the nowcasts since the nowcasts are made available just ahead of the clock for immediate use. Because none of the verification data are assimilated into the RRNPS at the time of verification, this evaluation is a true test of the time-integrated effects of previous FDDA on current model solutions. Furthermore, the statistical evaluations also utilize independent data completely withheld from the system at all times. Evaluation of the RRNPS versus observations on the 4- and 12-km grids shows that there is little difference in statistical skill between the two resolutions for the two application regions. However, subjective case evaluations indicate that mesoscale detail is added to the wind and mass fields on the 4-km domain of the RRNPS as compared to the coarser 12-km domain. Statistics suggest that 4-km resolution provides slightly more accurate meteorology for the domain including complex terrain and coastlines. The statistics also show that the use of continuous FDDA in a high-resolution mesoscale model improves the accuracy of the RRNPS nowcasts, and that this unique nowcast prediction system provides immediately available forecast-analysis products that are comparable or superior to those produced at operational centers, especially for the surface and the boundary layer. Finally, the RRNPS is also designed to run locally and on demand in a highly automated mode on modest computing platforms (e.g., a dual-processor PC) with potentially very limited data resources and nonstandard data communications.
ACCESSION #
20583473

 

Related Articles

  • Forecasting Weather. Kelley, Dave // Boating World;Nov2003, Vol. 24 Issue 9, p32 

    Presents weather forecasting tips for boaters. Benefits from weather charts featured on newspapers; Use of station plot symbols; Idea of the symbol separating the air temperature and the dew point.

  • Maintaining the Role of Humans in the Forecast Process. STUART, NEIL A.; SCHULTZ, DAVID M.; KLEIN, GARY // Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society;Dec2007, Vol. 88 Issue 12, p1893 

    The Second Forum on the Future Role of the Human in the Forecast Process occurred on 2-3 August 2005 at the American Meteorological Society's Weather Analysis and Forecasting Conference in Washington, D.C. The forum consisted of three sessions. This paper discusses the second session, featuring...

  • Comparisons of the Millimeter and Submillimeter Bands for Atmospheric Temperature and Water Vapor Soundings for Clear and Cloudy Skies. Prigent, Catherine; Pardo, Juan R.; Rossow, William B. // Journal of Applied Meteorology & Climatology;Dec2006, Vol. 45 Issue 12, p1622 

    Geostationary satellites provide revisiting times that are desirable for nowcasting and observations of severe weather. To overcome the problem of spatial resolution from a geostationary orbit, millimeter to submillimeter wave sounders have been suggested. This study compares the capabilities of...

  • Winter-Season Climate Prediction for the U.K. Health Sector. McGregor, G. R.; Cox, M.; Cui, Y.; Cui, Z.; Davey, M. K.; Graham, R. F.; Brookshaw, A. // Journal of Applied Meteorology & Climatology;Dec2006, Vol. 45 Issue 12, p1782 

    The winter climate of the British Isles is characterized by considerable interannual variability, which, because of the general climate sensitivity of a number of health outcomes, places at times considerable pressure on the provision of health services. Seasonal climate forecasts potentially...

  • REACHING THE GOALS OUTLINED IN THE FIRST FORUM. STUART, NEIL A.; GRUMM, RICHARD; MOORE, JAMES; PIETRYCHA, ALBERT E.; REEVES, KENNETH; ABRAMS, ELLIOT; MASS, CLIFFORD F. // Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society;Dec2007, Vol. 88 Issue 12, p1896 

    The article focuses on the objectives at the first forum of human in the Forecast Process in the U.S. Among the major themes identified at the forum were improved communication within the profession and users, improved task delegation and time management in forecast production, increased...

  • Hayashi spectra of the northern hemisphere mid-latitude atmospheric variability in the NCEP—NCAR and ECMWF reanalyses. Dell’Aquila, Alessandro; Lucarini, Valerio; Ruti, Paolo; Calmanti, Sandro // Climate Dynamics;Nov2005, Vol. 25 Issue 6, p639 

    We compare 45 years of the reanalyses of National Center for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research and European Center for Mid-Range Weather Forecast in terms of their representation of the mid-latitude winter atmospheric variability for the overlapping time...

  • Model Forecast Improvements with Decreased Horizontal Grid Spacing over Finescale Intermountain Orography during the 2002 Olympic Winter Games. Hart, Kenneth A.; Steenburgh, W. James; Onton, Daryl J. // Weather & Forecasting;Aug2005, Vol. 20 Issue 4, p558 

    Forecasts produced for the 2002 Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games (23 January–25 March 2002) by a multiply nested version of the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU–NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5) are examined to...

  • Initialization and Diagnostic Application of Operational Analyses. Lambert, Steven J. // Atmosphere -- Ocean (Canadian Meteorological & Oceanographic Soc;Dec1991, Vol. 29 Issue 4, p648 

    The differences between the initialized and the uninitialized analyses from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts for the December to February and the June to August seasons are examined to determine the extent to which analysed fields are changed by the initialization procedure...

  • Quasi-Operational Coastal Ocean Nowcast/Forecast Systems. Mooers, Christopher N. K. // Terrestrial, Atmospheric & Oceanic Sciences;Feb2010, Vol. 21 Issue 1, p181 

    For several years, quasi-operational (i.e., real-time, semi-autonomous, research-mode) nowcast/forecast systems have been run in two quite different regimes: (1) the Straits of Florida/East Florida Shelf, which includes the Florida Current, and (2) Prince William Sound, Alaska, which is a small,...

Share

Read the Article

Courtesy of THE LIBRARY OF VIRGINIA

Sorry, but this item is not currently available from your library.

Try another library?
Sign out of this library

Other Topics