TITLE

Una aproximación de la política comercial estratégica para el ingreso de Colombia al ALCA

AUTHOR(S)
Rocha, Ricardo; Perilla, Juan Ricardo; López, Ramiro
PUB. DATE
March 2004
SOURCE
Desarrollo y Sociedad;Mar2004, Issue 53, p45
SOURCE TYPE
Academic Journal
DOC. TYPE
Article
ABSTRACT
El objetivo de la investigación consiste en estimar los efectos que se darían sobre el bienestar (cambios en los precios relativos de la oferta de exportaciones colombiana) en un escenario para el ALCA que elimina la protección del AEC y los aranceles en el TLCAN. Se trata de una aproximación a los efectos precios que pretende enriquecer y complementar los análisis de la integración que tradicionalmente se han basado en los flujos de comercio. Empleando la técnica econométrica de panel se realizó un ejercicio retrospectivo para el período 1989-2001, con un modelo que especifica la respuesta de los precios como una función de las barreras arancelarias enfrentadas como proxi de la política comercial. Adicionalmente, estos efectos se controlan por las tasas de cambio, los costos de producción y la demanda que enfrentan las firmas colombianas contra sus principales competidores en los mercados de Venezuela y Estados Unidos respectivamente. Los resultados permiten estimar un efecto neto negativo sobre el bienestar de US$ 94 millones anuales, equivalentes a una pérdida de US$ 144 millones en Venezuela y una ganancia de US$ 50 millones en EE.UU. Estos efectos se refieren a los menores precios de la oferta colombiana, particularmente de los sectores textil, confecciones y metalmecánica, frente a un escenario ALCA donde se elimina la protección que brinda el AEC.
ACCESSION #
20001276

 

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