Akal, Mustafa; Baydil, çağri
June 2004
Ekev Academic Review;Summer2004, Vol. 8 Issue 20, p45
Academic Journal
This study aims to test whether the Real GNP growth rates (Gross National Product Growth Rate) fluctuate systematically. As a result, Real GNP growth rate fluctuations for the period of 1924-2002 indicated systematical movements around the long term average growth rate 4,92% of the period based on the rank-sign test. But it indicated random fluctuations in the cycles around the long-term average of the cycles based on the rank-sign test. These results are contradictory. In order to clarify the issue we run rank test around the trend value and analytical Ljung-Box test. According to these test, the behavior of Real GNP growth series is found random. And sub periods fluctuations around their long-term average growth rates are found random based on the rank-sign test. The most stable annual growth rates existed during the period of 1950-1975. The highest average growth rate with the highest risk existed during the period of the 1924-1949. Starting with the globalization after 1975 there existed instabilities in economic growth. And a negative growth shock and a deep in the economy followed every growth boom. The behavior of the growth series can be evaluated with the inflation and the unemployment rate in view of the business cycles fluctuations.


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