TITLE

Simulation of ENSO in the New NCEP Coupled Forecast System Model (CFS03)

AUTHOR(S)
Wanqiu Wang; Saha, Suranjana; Hua-Lu Pan; Nadiga, Sudhir; White, Glenn
PUB. DATE
June 2005
SOURCE
Monthly Weather Review;Jun2005, Vol. 133 Issue 6, p1574
SOURCE TYPE
Academic Journal
DOC. TYPE
Article
ABSTRACT
A new global coupled atmosphere–ocean forecast system model (CFS03) has recently been developed at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The new coupled model consists of a T62L64 version of the operational NCEP Atmospheric Global Forecast System model and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Modular Ocean Model version 3, and is expected to replace the current NCEP operational coupled seasonal forecast model. This study assesses the performance of the new coupled model in simulating El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is considered to be a desirable feature for models used for seasonal prediction. The diagnoses indicate that the new coupled model simulates ENSO variability with realistic frequency. The amplitude of the simulated ENSO is similar to that of the observed strong events, but the ENSO events in the simulation occur more regularly than in observations. The model correctly simulates the observed ENSO seasonal phase locking with the peak amplitude near the end of the year. On average, however, simulated warm events tend to start about 3 months earlier and persist longer than observed. The simulated ENSO is consistent with the delayed oscillator, recharge oscillator, and advective–reflective oscillator theories, suggesting that each of these mechanisms may operate at the same time during the ENSO cycle. The diagnoses of the simulation indicate that the model may be suitable for real-time prediction of ENSO.
ACCESSION #
17434840

 

Related Articles

  • Interactive comment on "Joint effect of the western and eastern Pacific warm pools on ENSO cycle" by Q. Qi et al.  // Ocean Science Discussions;2008 Supplement, Vol. 5, pS121 

    The article presents a comment on the article "Joint Effect of the Western and Eastern Pacific Warm Pools on ENSO Cycle." The authors of this paper notes that the study of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the science of groping for anomalous fluctuation causes of supersonic transport...

  • Simulation of the interannual variability of the wind-driven Arctic sea-ice cover during 1958–1998. Arfeuille, G.; Mysak, L. A.; Tremblay, L. -B. // Climate Dynamics;Feb2000, Vol. 16 Issue 2/3, p107 

    A thermodynamic-dynamic sea-ice model based on a granular material rheology developed by Tremblay and Mysak is used to study the interannual variability of the Arctic sea-ice cover during the 41-year period 1958–98. Monthly wind stress forcing derived from the National Centers for...

  • Seasonal prediction skill of ECMWF System 4 and NCEP CFSv2 retrospective forecast for the Northern Hemisphere Winter. Kim, Hye-Mi; Webster, Peter; Curry, Judith // Climate Dynamics;Dec2012, Vol. 39 Issue 12, p2957 

    The seasonal prediction skill for the Northern Hemisphere winter is assessed using retrospective predictions (1982-2010) from the ECMWF System 4 (Sys4) and National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) CFS version 2 (CFSv2) coupled atmosphere-ocean seasonal climate prediction systems. Sys4...

  • Key features of the IPSL ocean atmosphere model and its sensitivity to atmospheric resolution. Marti, Olivier; Braconnot, P.; Dufresne, J.-L.; Bellier, J.; Benshila, R.; Bony, S.; Brockmann, P.; Cadule, P.; Caubel, A.; Codron, F.; de Noblet, N.; Denvil, S.; Fairhead, L.; Fichefet, T.; Foujols, M.-A.; Friedlingstein, P.; Goosse, H.; Grandpeix, J.-Y.; Guilyardi, E.; Hourdin, F. // Climate Dynamics;Jan2010, Vol. 34 Issue 1, p1 

    This paper presents the major characteristics of the Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL) coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model. The model components and the coupling methodology are described, as well as the main characteristics of the climatology and interannual...

  • On the Interannual Variability of the Indonesian Throughflow and Its Linkage with ENSO. England, Matthew H.; Fei Huang // Journal of Climate;May2005, Vol. 18 Issue 9, p1435 

    The Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) variability is assessed using a retrospective analysis of the global ocean based on the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) experiment spanning the period 1950–99. A comparison between the 1983–95 observed ITF, and the simulated ITF suggests a...

  • Characteristics of Stochastic Variability Associated with ENSO and the Role of the MJO. Batstone, Crispian; Hendon, Harry H. // Journal of Climate;Jun2005, Vol. 18 Issue 11, p1773 

    To shed light onto the possible role of stochastic forcing of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the characteristics of observed tropical atmospheric variability that is statistically uncoupled from slowly evolving sea surface temperature (SST) are diagnosed. The...

  • Fine Pattern of Natural Modes in Sea Surface Temperature Variability: 1985–2003. Ge Chen; Haitao Li // Journal of Physical Oceanography;Feb2008, Vol. 38 Issue 2, p314 

    A natural mode refers, in this study, to a periodic oscillation of sea surface temperature (SST) that is geophysically significant on a global, regional, or local scale. Using a newly developed harmonic extraction scheme by Chen, which has the advantage of being space–time decoupled and...

  • Incorporating a semi-stochastic model of ocean-modulated westerly wind bursts into an ENSO prediction model. Gebbie, Geoffrey; Tziperman, Eli // Theoretical & Applied Climatology;2009, Vol. 97 Issue 1/2, p65 

    Prediction models of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon often represent westerly wind bursts (WWBs), a significant player in ENSO dynamics, as stochastic forcing. A recent paper developed an observationally motivated semi-stochastic statistical model that quantifies the...

  • Anatomy of Synoptic Eddy-NAO Interaction through Eddy Structure Decomposition. Ren, Hong-Li; Jin, Fei-Fei; Gao, Li // Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences;Jul2012, Vol. 69 Issue 7, p2171 

    A method of eddy structure decomposition is proposed to detect how low-frequency flow associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) organizes systematically synoptic eddy (SE) activity to generate in-phase and upstream feedbacks. In this method, a statistical eddy streamfunction (SES)...

Share

Read the Article

Courtesy of

Sorry, but this item is not currently available from your library.

Try another library?
Sign out of this library

Other Topics