TITLE

Western Pacific SST Prediction with an Intermediate El Niño Prediction Model

AUTHOR(S)
Kug, Jong-Seong; Kang, In-Sik; Jhun, Jong-Ghap
PUB. DATE
May 2005
SOURCE
Monthly Weather Review;May2005, Vol. 133 Issue 5, p1343
SOURCE TYPE
Academic Journal
DOC. TYPE
Article
ABSTRACT
To improve forecasting skills in the western Pacific sea surface temperature (SST), the authors utilized and modified an intermediate El Niño prediction model. The original model does not have the major SST thermodynamics for western Pacific SST variability, so it cannot simulate interannual variation in the western Pacific correctly. Therefore, the authors have introduced some modifications, such as heat flux and vertical mixing, into the dynamical model in order to capture SST thermodynamics more realistically. The modified model has better forecast skill than the original one, not only for the western Pacific but also for the eastern-central Pacific. The model has predictive skill up to 6-months lead time as judged by a correlation exceeding 0.5.
ACCESSION #
17239741

 

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