Western Pacific SST Prediction with an Intermediate El Niño Prediction Model

Kug, Jong-Seong; Kang, In-Sik; Jhun, Jong-Ghap
May 2005
Monthly Weather Review;May2005, Vol. 133 Issue 5, p1343
Academic Journal
To improve forecasting skills in the western Pacific sea surface temperature (SST), the authors utilized and modified an intermediate El Niño prediction model. The original model does not have the major SST thermodynamics for western Pacific SST variability, so it cannot simulate interannual variation in the western Pacific correctly. Therefore, the authors have introduced some modifications, such as heat flux and vertical mixing, into the dynamical model in order to capture SST thermodynamics more realistically. The modified model has better forecast skill than the original one, not only for the western Pacific but also for the eastern-central Pacific. The model has predictive skill up to 6-months lead time as judged by a correlation exceeding 0.5.


Related Articles

  • The spring prediction barrier in ENSO hindcast experiments using the FGOALS-g model. Yan, Li; Yu, Yongqiang // Chinese Journal of Oceanology & Limnology;Nov2012, Vol. 30 Issue 6, p1093 

    The Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model-gamil (FGOALS-g) was used to study the spring prediction barrier (SPB) in an ensemble system. This coupled model was developed and maintained at the State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG). There...

  • A new distribution corresponding to thermodynamics in supercritical and subcritical regions and in the region of negative pressure. Maslov, V. // Doklady Mathematics;May2015, Vol. 91 Issue 3, p379 

    The article discusses a study regarding the distribution of thermodynamics in supercritical and subcritical regions of negative pressure. Topics include the chemical potential of parastatistical distribution, the use of normalizations for the computation of critical temperature and pressure, and...

  • Simultaneous measurement of OI 557.7 nm, O 2 (0, 1) Atmospheric Band and OH (6, 2) Meinel Band nightglow at Kolhapur (17° N), India. Parihar, N.; Taori, A.; Gurubaran, S.; Mukherjee, G. K. // Annales Geophysicae (09927689);2013, Vol. 31 Issue 2, p197 

    Near-simultaneous measurements of OI 557.7 nm, O2 (0, 1) Atmospheric Band and OH (6, 2) Meinel Band nightglow were carried out at Kolhapur (17° N), India during February-March 2007. Atmospheric temperatures around 87 and 94 km were derived from the knowledge of intensity measurements of...

  • Rapid shift in zooplankton community composition on the northeast Pacific shelf during the 1998–1999 El Niño – La Niña event. Zamon, Jeannette E.; Welch, David W. // Canadian Journal of Fisheries & Aquatic Sciences;Jan2005, Vol. 62 Issue 1, p133 

    The 1997–1998 El Niño was one of the strongest ocean warming events in the historical record followed by an equally strong cold La Niña event in 1999. We observed a rapid shift in the marine zooplankton assemblage found in the transitional area between the California Current domain...

  • Prediction skill of monthly SST in the North Atlantic Ocean in NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2. Hu, Zeng-Zhen; Kumar, Arun; Huang, Bohua; Wang, Wanqiu; Zhu, Jieshun; Wen, Caihong // Climate Dynamics;Jun2013, Vol. 40 Issue 11/12, p2745 

    This work evaluates the skill of retrospective predictions of the second version of the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) for the North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) and investigates the influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on the...

  • Eastern Equatorial Pacific Forcing of ENSO Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies. Xuebin Zhang; McPhaden, Michael J. // Journal of Climate;Nov2008, Vol. 21 Issue 22, p6070 

    Previous studies have described the impacts of wind stress variations in the eastern Pacific on sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies associated with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. However, these studies have usually focused on individual El Niño events and...

  • Off the Chart. Svitil, Kathy A. // Discover;Jan99, Vol. 20 Issue 1, p69 

    Presents a chart depicting atmospheric temperature in 1998. Effects of the El Nino to atmospheric temperature.

  • DEVELOPMENT AND EVALUATION OF THE MODEL FOR THE SURFACE PAVEMENT TEMPERATURE PREDICTION. Matić, B.; Tepić, J.; Sremac, S.; Radonjanin, V.; Matić, D.; Jovanović, P. // Metalurgija;2012, Vol. 51 Issue 3, p329 

    This paper examines the existing models for predicting pavement temperatures and formulates a new one using a regression equation to predict the minimum and maximum pavement surface temperatures depending on the air temperature. Also, the paper presents a model for pavement temperature...

  • The unarguable Truths. Partridge, Chris // Environmental Engineering;Feb2015, Vol. 28 Issue 1, p1 

    The author comments on the development of the Cryogenic Solar Absolute Radiometer (CSAR) to accurately measure global temperatures for accurate modeling of climate changes and mentions topics including the global warming and the plans to put CSAR on orbit.


Read the Article

Courtesy of

Sorry, but this item is not currently available from your library.

Try another library?
Sign out of this library

Other Topics