We don't need another record corn crop

Robinson, Elton
March 2005
Southeast Farm Press;3/23/2005, Vol. 32 Issue 9, p12
Trade Publication
This article reports that the world and the U.S. corn stocks are now building, and the world stocks-to-use ratio has increased by 2.5 percent, to 16.5 percent. U.S. stocks-to-use ratio has climbed to a very comfortable 19 percent, at just under 2 billion bushels. The trading range when stocks are this high offers some insight where prices could go during the season, according to grain and oilseed analyst Alan Brugler, Brugler Marketing & Management, Omaha. The analyst points out that the average annual trading range for corn since 1983-84 is 94 cents a bushel. The smallest trading range, which typically comes during high stocks years, was 44 cents in 1992-93 when ending stocks were over 2 billion bushels. Brugler has three scenarios for the 2005 U.S. corn crop. His best guess is an increase in corn acreage of about 2.1 million acres, to 83 million acres. A trend yield of 142 bushels would produce a crop 10.6 billion bushels.


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