The Coming 'Great Winter'?

June 2004
Journal of Financial Planning;Jun2004, Vol. 17 Issue 6, p20
Academic Journal
The article deals with the economic prediction made by Harry S. Dent Jr., president and founder of the H.S. Dent Foundation. Dent predicted a Dow of 35,000 to 40,000 by the end of this decade. Hi sees a healthy, growing U.S. economy in the next several years--at least until the great winter which he calls a critical point toward the end of the current decade that will confront our nation with challenges not seen since the Great Depression of the 1920s. According to him, the root cause of the expected downturn will be a decline in consumer spending as the baby boomers pass their peak spending age. The result will be a contracting economy that will have wide-ranging negative effects until the early 2020s. The solution would be intelligent immigration policies that will seek out and bring new consumers to offset the coming economic contraction. Dent, however, is not optimistic that the nation's leaders will be willing to engage in serious public debate on the issue or that U.S. citizens are willing to accept that the solutions to future domestic problems are dependent on the skills, talent, and productivity of foreigners.


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