A clinical prediction model predicted 30-day and 1-year mortality in patients hospitalized for heart failure

May 2004
ACP Journal Club;May/Jun2004, Vol. 140 Issue 3, p80
Academic Journal
This article presents a study to assess whether a clinical prediction model adequately stratify the risk for death at 30 days and 1 year, in patients presenting with heart failure. Newly admitted patients and 1407 for validation, with a primary diagnosis of heart failure meeting modified Framingham heart failure criteria, were taken for the study. Potential candidate variables were identified based on literature review, expert opinion, and availability. Data on left-ventricular function were collected when available. Mortality rates at 30 days and 1 year were 10.7% and 32.9%, respectively, in the derivation cohort, and 10.4% and 30.5% in the validation cohort and increased with increasing risk scores. In patients with heart failure, a prediction model based on clinical data gathered within the initial hours of hospital presentation predicted all-cause mortality at 30 days and 1 year.


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