An outbreak vector-host epidemic model with spatial structure: the 2015-2016 Zika outbreak in Rio De Janeiro

Fitzgibbon, W. E.; Morgan, J. J.; Webb, G. F.
March 2017
Theoretical Biology & Medical Modelling;3/27/2017, Vol. 14, p1
Academic Journal
Background: A deterministic model is developed for the spatial spread of an epidemic disease in a geographical setting. The disease is borne by vectors to susceptible hosts through criss-cross dynamics. The model is focused on an outbreak that arises from a small number of infected hosts imported into a subregion of the geographical setting. The goal is to understand how spatial heterogeneity of the vector and host populations influences the dynamics of the outbreak, in both the geographical spread and the final size of the epidemic. Methods: Partial differential equations are formulated to describe the spatial interaction of the hosts and vectors. The partial differential equations have reaction-diffusion terms to describe the criss-cross interactions of hosts and vectors. The partial differential equations of the model are analyzed and proven to be well-posed. A local basic reproduction number for the epidemic is analyzed. Results: The epidemic outcomes of the model are correlated to the spatially dependent parameters and initial conditions of the model. The partial differential equations of the model are adapted to seasonality of the vector population, and applied to the 2015-2016 Zika seasonal outbreak in Rio de Janeiro Municipality in Brazil. Conclusions: The results for the model simulations of the 2015-2016 Zika seasonal outbreak in Rio de Janeiro Municipality indicate that the spatial distribution and final size of the epidemic at the end of the season are strongly dependent on the location and magnitude of local outbreaks at the beginning of the season. The application of the model to the Rio de Janeiro Municipality Zika 2015-2016 outbreak is limited by incompleteness of the epidemic data and by uncertainties in the parametric assumptions of the model.


Related Articles

  • Not going viral.  // New Scientist;1/30/2016, Vol. 229 Issue 3058, p5 

    An introduction is presented in which the editor discusses various reports within the issue on topics including the mosquito-borne tropical virus Zika which has resulted in thousands of severe birth defects in Brazil, and criticism of the slow response to the Ebola outbreak in West Africa in 2015.

  • To Fight the Zika Pandemic, Learn from Ebola. Dhillon, Ranu S.; Glatter, Robert; Srikrishna, Devabhaktuni // Harvard Business Review Digital Articles;2/4/2016, p2 

    The article focuses on lessons that governments can learn from the Ebola pandemic in fighting the Zika virus which was declared as an international public health emergency by the World Health Organization (WHO) in 2016.

  • Zika's Spread: Southern Growers Dodge Virus. Paire, Jennifer; Harler, Curt // Growing;Dec2016, Vol. 14 Issue 12, p6 

    The article focuses on the spread of Zika virus which comes from a mosquito bite. It states that though the virus has spread in the Miami area, 40 miles south in Homestead, Florida there was no sign of the virus and it had not impacted the agriculture in any way. Details regarding the spreading...

  • Zika virus outbreaks in Asia and South America. Brown, Carolyn // CMAJ: Canadian Medical Association Journal;2/2/2016, Vol. 188 Issue 2, pE34 

    The article reports on the prevalence of Zika virus in Southeast Asia and South America which can cause microcephaly in newborns. It highlights several symptoms of Zika virus including fever, muscle soreness and rash as well as microcephaly in newborns. It also cites the effort of the...

  • Zika Virus Spreads to New Areas - Region of the Americas, May 2015-January 2016. Hennessey, Morgan; Fischer, Marc; Staples, J. Erin // MMWR: Morbidity & Mortality Weekly Report;1/29/2016, Vol. 65 Issue 3, p55 

    Zika virus is a mosquito-borne flavivirus that was first identified in Uganda in 1947 (1). Before 2007, only sporadic human disease cases were reported from countries in Africa and Asia. In 2007, the first documented outbreak of Zika virus disease was reported in Yap State, Federated States of...

  • Possible Association Between Zika Virus Infection and Microcephaly - Brazil, 2015. Schuler-Faccini, Lavinia; Ribeiro, Erlane M.; Feitosa, Ian M. L.; Horovitz, Dafne D. G.; Cavalcanti, Denise P.; Pessoa, André; Doriqui, Maria Juliana R.; Neri, Joao Ivanildo; de Pina Neto, Joao Monteiro; Wanderley, Hector Y. C.; Cernach, Mirlene; El-Husny, Antonette S.; Pone, Marcos V. S.; Serao, Cassio L. C.; Sanseverino, Maria Teresa V.; Neto, Joao Monteiro de Pina; Brazilian Medical Genetics Society–Zika Embryopathy Task Force // MMWR: Morbidity & Mortality Weekly Report;1/29/2016, Vol. 65 Issue 3, p59 

    In early 2015, an outbreak of Zika virus, a flavivirus transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes, was identified in northeast Brazil, an area where dengue virus was also circulating. By September, reports of an increase in the number of infants born with microcephaly in Zika virus-affected areas began to...

  • Zika Virus: Rapid Spread in the Western Hemisphere. Chen, Lin H.; Hamer, Davidson H. // Annals of Internal Medicine;5/3/2016, Vol. 164 Issue 9, p613 

    The article discusses the rapid spread of Zika virus in the Western Hemisphere. Topics mentioned include the febrile illness caused by the mosquito-borne flavivirus associated with rash, the outbreak reports from Natal in Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil in March 2015, and the use of acetaminophen...

  • Outbreak of Zika Virus Disease -- American Samoa, 2016. Healy, Jessica M.; Burgess, M. Catherine; Tai-Ho Chen; Hancock, W. Thane; Toews, Karrie-Ann E.; Anesi, Magele Scott; Tulafono Jr, Ray T.; Mataia, Mary Aseta; Sili, Benjamin; Solaita, Jacqueline; Whelen, A. Christian; Sciulli, Rebecca; Gose, Remedios B.; Uluiviti, Vasiti; Hennessey, Morgan; Utu, Fara; Nua, Motusa Tuileama; Fischer, Marc // MMWR: Morbidity & Mortality Weekly Report;10/21/2016, Vol. 65 Issue 41, p1146 

    The article focuses on the outbreak of Zika virus disease in American Samoa in 2016. It mentions the increase in cases of acute febrile rash illness in the country from December 2016 to January 2016, a case of laboratory-confirmed Zika virus infection involving a traveler who visited the country...

  • HIV and Zika: When will we be able to end these epidemics? Wainberg, Mark A.; Lever, Andrew M. L. // Retrovirology;11/15/2016, Vol. 13, p1 

    The authors ask when will the world be able to end the HIV and Zika epidemics. They says that it is obvious that a year cannot go by without some fresh emergent infectious disease diverting the headlines from the HIV epidemic. They add that HIV continues to kill several million people annually....

  • As Zika Virus Spreads, Uncertainty Breeds Fear.  // Washington Informer;12/29/2016, Vol. 52 Issue 11, p15 

    The article reports that the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has taken a step forward to handle the Zika virus epidemic suspected of causing birth defects among newborns across the U.S. and the virus has been linked to a debilitating disorder known as Guillain-Barre syndrome.


Read the Article


Sorry, but this item is not currently available from your library.

Try another library?
Sign out of this library

Other Topics