Retrospective ENSO Forecasts: Sensitivity to Atmospheric Model and Ocean Resolution

Schneider, Edwin K.; DeWitt, David G.; Rosati, Anthony; Kirtman, Ben P.; Ji, Link; Tribbia, Joseph J.
December 2003
Monthly Weather Review;Dec2003, Vol. 131 Issue 12, p3038
Academic Journal
Describes results from a series of 40 retrospective forecasts of tropical Pacific SST, starting January 1 and July 1 1980-1999, performed with several coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models sharing the same ocean model and the same initial conditions. Indication that the systematic errors of the mean evolution in the coupled models depend strongly on the atmospheric model; Suggestion of a spring prediction barrier.


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