TITLE

Accurate Integration of Stochastic Climate Models with Application to El Niño

AUTHOR(S)
Ewald, Brian; Penland, Cécile; Temam, Roger
PUB. DATE
January 2004
SOURCE
Monthly Weather Review;Jan2004, Vol. 132 Issue 1, p154
SOURCE TYPE
Academic Journal
DOC. TYPE
Article
ABSTRACT
Numerical models are one of the most important theoretical tools in atmospheric research, and the development of numerical techniques specifically designed to model the atmosphere has been an important discipline for many years. In recent years, stochastic numerical models have been introduced in order to investigate more fully Hasselmann's suggestion that the effect of rapidly varying “weather” noise on more slowly varying “climate” could be treated as stochastic forcing. In this article an accurate method of integrating stochastic climate models is introduced and compared with some other commonly used techniques. It is shown that particular care must be used when the size of rapid variations in the “weather” depends upon the “climate.” How the implementation of stochasticity in a numerical model can affect the detection of multiple dynamical regimes in model output is discussed. To illustrate the usefulness of the numerical schemes, three stochastic models of El Niño having different assumptions about the random forcing are generated. Each of these models reproduces by construction the observed mean and covariance structure of tropical Indo-Pacific sea surface temperature. It is shown that the skew and kurtosis of an observed time series representing El Niño is well within the distributions of these statistics expected from finite sampling. The observed trend, however, is unlikely to be explained by sampling. As always, more investigation of this issue is required.
ACCESSION #
11912152

 

Related Articles

  • Application of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation to targeted observation studies of the atmosphere and ocean. Mu, Mu; Wang, Qiang; Duan, Wansuo; Jiang, Zhina // Journal of Meteorological Research;Oct2014, Vol. 28 Issue 5, p923 

    This paper reviews progress in the application of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation to targeted observation studies of the atmosphere and ocean in recent years, with a focus on the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Kuroshio path variations, and blocking events. Through studying...

  • Predictability of El Niño over the past 148 years. Chen, Dake; Cane, Mark A.; Kaplan, Alexey; Zebiak, Stephen E.; Daji Huang, Stephen E. // Nature;4/15/2004, Vol. 428 Issue 6984, p733 

    Forecasts of El Niño climate events are routinely provided and distributed, but the limits of El Niño predictability are still the subject of debate. Some recent studies suggest that the predictability is largely limited by the effects of high-frequency atmospheric ‘noise’,...

  • EL NIÑO. Harman, Alan // Bee Culture;Feb2016, Vol. 144 Issue 2, p93 

    The article reports that the El Niño weather phenomenon is expected to abate through the northern summer and autumn in 2016, according to New Zealand's National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research.

  • Evaluation of Ensemble Predictions of Blocking in the NCEP Global Spectral Model. Watson, Joshua S.; Colucci, Stephen J. // Monthly Weather Review;Dec2002, Vol. 130 Issue 12, p3008 

    Ensemble forecasts from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Spectral Model (GSM) have been used to develop a probabilistic scheme for the prediction of blocking over the Northern Hemisphere. An evaluation of these forecasts during three recent cool seasons revealed...

  • Short-term climate variations: Recent accomplishments and issues for future progress. Trenberth, Kevin E. // Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society;June97, Vol. 78 Issue 6, p1081 

    Provides a short nontechnical review of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and the associated teleconnections to higher latitudes. Predictability of ENSO; Provisions for a basis for skillful prediction of interannual variations in climate; Evaluation of the prediction process.

  • Impacts of 1997-98 El Nino--Generated weather in the United States. Changnon, Stanley A. // Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society;Sep99, Vol. 80 Issue 9, p1819 

    Evaluates the impacts of the 1997-98 El Nino on human lives and economy of the United States. Estimated cost of damages; Number of casualties; Positive impact on the economy.

  • Scientists hit pay dirt in predicting El Nino. Cowen, Robert C. // Christian Science Monitor;3/11/97, Vol. 89 Issue 72, p12 

    Examines the ability of scientists to predict the warming of the tropical eastern Pacific waters, called `El Nino.' Benefits of this ability by scientists; Disasters caused by El Nino; How scientist predict El Nino.

  • Warmer in the Far West, Alaska, and northern Rockies; cooler in midsection.  // Air Conditioning, Heating & Refrigeration News;05/18/98, Vol. 204 Issue 3, p20 

    Forecasts the incidence of El Nino in the United States from May to July 1998. Upgrade of the National Weather Service's (NWS) database for its statistical tools by using 102 climate divisions; Speed with which El Nino dissipates; Trends toward warmer-than-normal temperatures in the West;...

  • Taking the measure of El Nino. Budiansky, Stephen // U.S. News & World Report;03/09/98, Vol. 124 Issue 9, p7 

    Offers observations on the weather phenomenon known as El Nino. How it has been invoked for numerous things unrelated to weather; Accuracy of the climatologists' predictions; Suggestion that the success of the El Nino predictions is the result of the hard work of collecting huge amounts of data.

Share

Read the Article

Courtesy of THE LIBRARY OF VIRGINIA

Sorry, but this item is not currently available from your library.

Try another library?
Sign out of this library

Other Topics