Improving Forecasting Quality, Avoiding Forecasts and Reducing the Impact of Forecast Errors

Thacker, Mike
December 2001
Logistics & Transport Focus;Dec2001, Vol. 3 Issue 10, p60
Trade Publication
This article deals with improving the quality of business forecasting, reducing the need to forecast, and reducing the impact of forecast error. The first method of improving forecasts is to measure forecast accuracy. There is also a need to forecast those items about which one is trying to make a decision. It makes sense to change the frequency that individual products, to the business as a whole, are forecast as they pass through transitional phases. The steps involved in the implementation of a method of continuously improving the forecast are the identification of faulty forecasts, identification of the main contributing faulty assumptions, refining of the data collection systems, and testing the new model retrospectively.


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