The Effect of Exchange Rate Uncertainty on Agricultural Exports: A Study of Turkey

Aktas, Ali Riza; Kaplan, Fatih; Ozkan, Burhan; Brumfield, Robin Gail
February 2015
Business Management Dynamics;Feb2015, Vol. 4 Issue 8, p1
Academic Journal
Using Turkish monthly data from 2003 to 2013, the short-term and long-term effects of the real income of foreign countries, and the relative price and uncertainty of the real exchange rate on Turkey's real agricultural export income were analysed using the Johansen co-integration method and the error correction model. The real exchange rate of uncertainty was obtained using the EGARCH model. The Johansen co-integration test showed a weak cointegration between variables in the long-term. The variable which affects agricultural exports in the long term is exchange rate uncertainty.


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