Targeted Observations to Improve Operational Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Guidance

Aberson, Sim D.
August 2003
Monthly Weather Review;Aug2003 Parts 1 and 2, Vol. 131 Issue 8, p1613
Academic Journal
Since 1997, the Tropical Prediction Center and the Hurricane Research Division have conducted operational synoptic surveillance missions with a Gulfstream IV-SP jet aircraft to improve numerical forecast guidance. Due to limited aircraft resources, optimal observing strategies for these missions must be developed. In the current study, the most rapidly growing modes are represented by areas of large forecast spread in the NCEP bred-vector ensemble forecasting system. The sampling strategy requires sampling of the entire target region with regularly spaced dropwindsonde observations. Three dynamical models were employed in testing the targeting and sampling strategies. With the assimilation into the numerical guidance of all the observations gathered during the surveillance missions, only the 12-h Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Hurricane Model forecast showed statistically significant improvement. Assimilation of only the subset of data from the subjectively found fully sampled target regions produced a statistically significant reduction of the track forecast errors of up to 25% within the critical first 2 days of the forecast. This is comparable with the cumulative business-as-usual improvement expected over 18 yr.


Related Articles

  • NEW DISCOVERY IN FORECASTING TROPICAL CYCLONES.  // Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society;Mar2009, Vol. 90 Issue 3, p289 

    The article reports on the new breakthrough in forecasting tropical cyclones in the U.S. A new computer model has accurately reproduced actual cyclones that originated in the Indian Ocean in 2006 and 2007. The new computer, called Nonhydrostatic Icosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM), has been...

  • Validation of Polarimetric Hail Detection. Heinselman, Pamela L.; Ryzhkov, Alexander V. // Weather & Forecasting;Oct2006, Vol. 21 Issue 5, p839 

    This study describes, illustrates, and validates hail detection by a simplified version of the National Severe Storms Laboratory’s fuzzy logic polarimetric hydrometeor classification algorithm (HCA). The HCA uses four radar variables: reflectivity, differential reflectivity,...

  • THE NATIONAL HURRICANE RESEARCH PROJECT. Dorst, Neal M. // Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society;Oct2007, Vol. 88 Issue 10, p1566 

    The article outlines the history of the emergence of the National Hurricane Research Project (NHRP) in the U.S. It is stated that NHRP was initiated by the Weather Bureau (USWB) in 1955 in response to the devastating effects of the past years hurricanes. Accordingly, the government allocated...

  • Impact of Phased-Array Radar Observations over a Short Assimilation Period: Observing System Simulation Experiments Using an Ensemble Kalman Filter. Yussouf, Nusrat; Stensrud, David J. // Monthly Weather Review;Feb2010, Vol. 138 Issue 2, p517 

    The conventional Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) scans a given weather phenomenon in approximately 5 min, and past results suggest that it takes 30–60 min to establish a storm into a model assimilating these data using an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) data assimilation...

  • Convection-Allowing and Convection-Parameterizing Ensemble Forecasts of a Mesoscale Convective Vortex and Associated Severe Weather Environment. Clark, Adam J.; Gallus Jr, William A.; Ming Xue; Fanyou Kong // Weather & Forecasting;Aug2010, Vol. 25 Issue 4, p1052 

    An analysis of a regional severe weather outbreak that was related to a mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) is performed. The MCV-spawning mesoscale convection system (MCS) formed in northwest Kansas along the southern periphery of a large cutoff 500-hPa low centered over western South Dakota. As...

  • Using eXtreme Gradient BOOSTing to Predict Changes in Tropical Cyclone Intensity over the Western North Pacific. Jin, Qingwen; Fan, Xiangtao; Liu, Jian; Xue, Zhuxin; Jian, Hongdeng // Atmosphere;Jun2019, Vol. 10 Issue 6, p341 

    Coastal cities in China are frequently hit by tropical cyclones (TCs), which result in tremendous loss of life and property. Even though the capability of numerical weather prediction models to forecast and track TCs has considerably improved in recent years, forecasting the intensity of a TC is...

  • MONITORING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  // Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society;Jan2007, Vol. 88 Issue 1, p22 

    The article reports on monitoring sea surface temperatures (SSTs). It is noted that SSTs can provide valuable information for climate forecasting and can give essential data on severe weather disturbances such as hurricanes and droughts. Daily SSTs are employed by hurricane forecasters to...

  • Polarimetric Phased-Array Radar for Weather Measurement: A Planar or Cylindrical Configuration? Zhang, Guifu; Doviak, Richard J.; Zrnicc, Dusan S.; Palmer, Robert; Lei, Lei; Al-Rashid, Yasser // Journal of Atmospheric & Oceanic Technology;Jan2011, Vol. 28 Issue 1, p63 

    This paper suggests a cylindrical configuration for agile beam polarimetric phased-array radar (PPAR) for weather surveillance. The most often used array configuration for PAR is a planar array antenna. The planar configuration, however, has significant deficiencies for polarimetric...

  • WSR-88D To Serve Northern Indiana and Northwest Ohio.  // Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society;Dec96, Vol. 77 Issue 12, p2978 

    The article reports on the plans of the National Weather Service (NWS) company to install its new weather forecast office and WSR-88D Doppler radar at the area north of the town of North Webster, Indiana. The secretary of the Department of Commerce reported that an evaluation team from the NWS...


Read the Article


Sorry, but this item is not currently available from your library.

Try another library?
Sign out of this library

Other Topics