TITLE

Financial variables and economic activity in the Nordic countries

AUTHOR(S)
Kuosmanen, Petri; Nabulsi, Nasib; Vataja, Juuso
PUB. DATE
May 2015
SOURCE
International Review of Economics & Finance;May2015, Vol. 37, p368
SOURCE TYPE
Academic Journal
DOC. TYPE
Article
ABSTRACT
This study focuses on the predictive content of stock returns, short-term interest rates and the term spread by using non-linear regime switching models for forecasting GDP growth in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden. We apply the threshold autoregressive (TAR) model-switching approach and the novel regime-switching signals which combine the inversion of the yield curve and the recession as the signal to switch between economic states. The results suggest that the TAR model approach with an inversion–recession signal is preferable for predicting economic activity in all four of the Nordic countries. Among the Nordic countries, the predictive relationship between financial variables and economic activity is found to be the strongest in Finland and Sweden.
ACCESSION #
102316302

 

Related Articles

  • THE NORDICS ECONOMIC REVIEW.  // European Retail Digest;Mar1998, Issue 17, p1 

    Evaluates the performance of the Scandinavian economy as of March 1998. Substantial growth in private spending and retail sales; Factors affecting labor markets and social welfare spending; Increase in unemployment rates; Economic forecast on gross domestic product, consumer expenditure and...

  • Northern highlights. Bazilchuk, Nancy // New Scientist;12/2/2006, Vol. 192 Issue 2580, p52 

    The article presents information on the economic developments in the Scandinavian region. Finland is ranked by the World Economic Forum as the world's most competitive country economically. The government will focus on energy and environment, metal products and mechanical engineering, forestry,...

  • The Future's Bright.  // Latin America Monitor: Brazil Monitor;Aug2007, Vol. 24 Issue 8, p1 

    The article offers an economic outlook for Brazil. Considering the continued growth of Brazil's real gross domestic product, higher rates of economic activity are expected due to the improving macroeconomic environment. The author notes that Standard and Poor's and Fitch Ratings, as well as...

  • Q209 The Nadir For Growth.  // Latin America Monitor: Mexico Monitor;Sep2009, Vol. 26 Issue 9, p5 

    The article reports on the contraction of the indicator of global economic activity (IGAE) in Mexico by 11.1% year-on-year (y-o-y) in May 2009, compared to negative 12.0% y-o-y in April. The real gross domestic product (GDP) growth is forecasted to be worse in the second quarter than in the...

  • Economic Activity.  // Economic Trends (07482922);Oct2006, p10 

    The article presents statistics regarding economic activity in the U.S., including the real gross domestic product (GDP), blue chip forecast, and the revisions to the components of GDP for 2006. The figures showing the sales of new and existing single-family homes, and durable goods are also...

  • The Yield Curve, March 2009.  // Economic Trends (07482922);Apr2009, p4 

    The article forecasts the yield spread and the real gross domestic product (GDP) growth as of March 2009 in the U.S. It relates that the rate has edged downward to 0.22 percent from January to March, which represents a 2.88% to 2.75% 10-year rate decrease. However, it suggests that real GDP will...

  • Dubai: What Changes Will 2010 Bring?  // Emerging Markets Monitor;1/11/2010, Vol. 15 Issue 38, p18 

    The article provides an outlook for the economy of Dubai, United Arab Emirates for 2010. Analysts forecast that Dubai's nominal and real gross domestic product (GDP) will shrink in 2009 and its economic activity will continue to contract in 2010. They also expect the population balance to shift...

  • REGIONAL INDICATORS.  // Asia Monitor: China & North East Asia Monitor;Oct2005, Vol. 12 Issue 10, p1 

    This section presents statistics related to the gross domestic product of various countries in Asia during 2003-04 and estimates for the period 2005-06.

  • Chile's economy remains strong and growing.  // Market: Latin America;Apr2006, Vol. 14 Issue 4, p1 

    Explains that Chile's economy is strong and growing. Estimate by the International Monetary Fund of the country's per capita income in 2006; Growth posted by the economy in January 2006; Statistics on economic activity in the country; Gross domestic product growth forecast for 2006.

Share

Read the Article

Courtesy of THE LIBRARY OF VIRGINIA

Sorry, but this item is not currently available from your library.

Try another library?
Sign out of this library

Other Topics